Brin: Singularities, Nightmares, and Japanese Sci-Fi

[Wayne Eddy]

Hi, KZK, everyone,

Just because animation is so labour intensive now, doesn't mean that it will 
be in 5 or 10 or 15 years time.  In fact it almost certainly won't be.  To 
say that a dedicated professional studio will always be necessary to produce 
a quality animated features fails to take into account the current rate of 
technological progess.  Eventually expert systems will enable a single 
person to do the work of a team, and not long after that AI's will be 
capable of reading a script and then generating a feature film without any 
human input.

If on the first draft the Soro look a bit too skiny or Gubru plumage not 
quite what the doctor ordered, it will be a matter of saying so, and it will 
pop up a few possible variations on the screen and regenerate the whole film 
over night or in a few minutes depending how far into the future we are 
talking.

We may never travel faster than light, or time travel, but we will be able 
to see whatever we want to on the big screen.

Regards,

Wayne Eddy.

> Hate to burst your bubble Dr. Brin, but, no that is not going to happen.
>  It takes enormous amounts of work (man hours) / CPU time and Money
> even to do small scale stuff.  You should watch the making of
> documentary for the sci-fi movie movie _Sky Captain and the World of
> Tomorrow_, about how much effort that 100% CGI (sans actors) movie took
> to make.  The guy who created the film was original working alone and
> thought that it would take him 10-15+ years to finish the product.
> Their are just way too many things for 1 person, or even a small team to
> handle.  That is why dedicated professional studio's will always be
> necessary for that kind of project.
>
> Also, how many serious animated drama's have come out of hollywood over
> the last ten years?  I can count on one hand with fingers left over.