junk science

[Charlie Bell]

On 21/04/2008, at 7:46 PM, Wayne Eddy wrote:
>
>>> Starvation (drought, a colder Europe if the Atlantic Conveyor fails,
>>> and reduced farmland), and disease (malaria could easily jump back
>>> over the Mediterranean and reinvade Europe as the summers get warmer
>>> and wetter...).
>
> You were watching SBS too last night I take it?

I was, but this is something I've spent a long time looking at. I've  
known about the Atlantic Conveyor for years.

I grew up in the UK and spent 8 years in Cyprus, so I'm as familiar  
with Europe as I am with Oz (and I've without doubt seen more of  
Australia than most natives), and seeing average temperatures in  
Western Europe dropping by 5 - 10 degrees would be, without doubt, a  
catastrophe. Britain and Ireland would suffer greatly. It's only a  
matter of time before there's a huge flood in London.
>
>
> I missed part of the documentry, but I thought warming is historically
> followed by increased glaciation.  Sea levels may end up dropping not
> rising,

Possibly - but increasing glaciation in the northern land masses would  
take a long time to suck up the water from the Greenland melt and the  
Antarctic ice sheets. There'll be a lot of rise before there's a fall  
(and if we keep forcing the climate, the reverse may not come for a  
LOOOOOOONG time).

> and malaria might fall back towards the equator.

Might. It was endemic in Europe until the 1950s. Wasn't the climate  
that pushed it out, it was insecticides taking out the _Anopheles_  
mossies. Warm summers are enough to bring it back and we might well  
not be able to eradicate it again - the tools we've previously used  
aren't as effective now.

>
>
> All the more reason to worry about things that we know are going to be
> problems and not things that might cause problems.

We *know* the world is warming. We need to know what the effects are  
so we know which of those effects will become problems, 'cause we need  
to prepare for those.
>
>
> I agree that sustainable development is a with out a doubt a very good
> thing, but I still don't think that global warming is the main  
> reason it
> should be pursued.


That's cool by me. If we agree on the destination, then the reasons  
don't matter that much.

Charlie.